The way forward for the Agnipath scheme is a urgent concern for the brand new authorities on the Centre. The narrative that this scheme dampened the NDA’s prospects gained momentum through the election marketing campaign. The spokesperson of the JD(U), a key NDA associate, has publicly said that the scheme upset some sections and must be modified. Regardless of these political rumblings, there’s a noticeable lack of particular options to deal with the unique issues that led to the crafting of the Agnipath scheme. This text proposes an “inverse induction mannequin” as an answer to make Agnipath 2.0 meet its operational, political, and monetary targets.
The necessity for reform
Any dialogue on Agnipath should begin with an acknowledgement that the standard of defence expenditure in India has worsened over the previous couple many years. The One Rank One Pension (OROP) scheme additional tipped the scales in favour of incumbent beneficiaries at the price of future troopers. In FY20, the defence pension expenditure exceeded the outlay marked for defence gear purchases. In the meantime, worsening relations with a technologically superior energy made India realise that spending with a give attention to a human-heavy pressure is militarily ineffective; the armed forces have to make a decisive shift from extra “humanpower” to extra “firepower”. At across the identical time, Covid-19 occurred, which led to a pause within the regular cycle of armed forces recruitment. These had been the circumstances by which the federal government began on the lookout for reform concepts.
Of the choices on the desk, the federal government selected probably the most disruptive one. This selection, which might result in a major discount in personnel prices within the shortest doable time, was a “Tour of Responsibility” scheme known as Agnipath. Underneath it, solely 1 / 4 of the recruits can be retained for everlasting service after a four-year time period. The federal government, nonetheless, introduced the scheme as a method of “attracting younger expertise from the society who’re extra in tune with up to date technological tendencies and plough again expert, disciplined and motivated manpower into the society.” There was no point out of the fiscal urgency. This transfer created an impression exterior that the federal government was needlessly imposing one other disruptive scheme. Subsequently, earlier than continuing with adjustments in Agnipath, the defence ministry should make clear the financial causes for reform to the folks by a white paper.
Agnipath 2.0: Reverse Induction
As soon as that’s executed, the ministry can modify the Agnipath scheme to higher handle the pursuits of key stakeholders. The bone of competition proper now could be what occurs to 75 per cent of the Agniveers who’re let go from the armed forces after the four-year contract ends. Apprehension concerning the future prospects of such cohorts led to mass protests in 2022. An answer that retains this part of Agniveers within the broader nationwide safety system can tackle these issues. Right here’s how.
The choice, known as “Inverse Induction”, was proposed by us [Lt Gen (Dr) Prakash Menon and I] in a Takshashila Dialogue Doc (September 2019). The identify implies that the recruitment of Agniveers first occurs by the Central and State Armed Police Forces (CAPF/SAPF) and never the Indian armed forces immediately. These new CAPF recruits are then inducted into the Indian armed forces for a color service of seven years. The Indian armed forces prepare the incoming personnel per their requirements for one 12 months, after which they serve for six years. After the Agniveer time period ends, the recruit is shipped again to the father or mother CAPF.
They bear reorientation coaching for round three months and are then absorbed on responsibility together with the retention of their seniority within the father or mother CAPF/SAPF. Retirees obtain pensions as relevant to the recruiting CAPF. On exiting the nationwide safety system at any level after their color service within the armed forces, Agniveers are entitled to obtain their SevaNidhi package deal, which accumulates on account of their time period within the forces.
Extra financial savings, higher capabilities
Defence pension financial savings come from two pathways. First, the personnel are retained inside the Nationwide Safety System for an extended time period, because the retirement age for all CAPF personnel is 60. Second, the pension invoice per Agniveer is decrease because the CAPF/SAPF present pensions as per the Nationwide Pension System (NPS). In contrast to OROP, NPS is a “outlined contribution” scheme, the place the pension is paid out of a corpus the worker co-creates utilizing their very own wage package deal. Furthermore, the Ministry of Defence doesn’t should bear the pension burden since CAPF/SAPF falls exterior their funding mandate. Our thumb rule is that the pension financial savings achieved per recruit quantity to a web current worth of Rs 1 crore.
The proposed inverse induction mannequin can successfully tackle the three predominant objections to the Agnipath scheme. First, retaining the troopers within the nationwide safety system alleviates the issues of these disheartened by the exit from armed forces after 4 years of gruelling service. Second, there are prone to be vital constructive results — the recruiting paramilitary organisations’ fight capabilities will enhance because of the coaching of Agniveers by the armed forces. It’ll additionally construct capability within the severely understaffed state armed police forces. Third, extending the service time period to seven years can even tackle the operational issues of the armed forces as a shorter service time period and excessive turnover are believed by some to cut back navy effectiveness.
Briefly, Agnipath may be improved by inverse induction. The Nationwide Safety Council Secretariat (NSCS) first proposed a variant of this mannequin in 2015. The proposal was accepted by the defence ministry however not the house ministry. Political intervention is required for the House Ministry to vary its stance. Tackling the fiscal issues of the nationwide safety system requires a whole-of-government strategy.
The author is deputy director on the Takshashila Establishment
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